close race boroughs analysis

YouGov’s MRP of the 2026 London local elections shows close races in many boroughs: Expose Surprising Flips in London Local E

Expose Surprising Flips in London Local Elections Voting

Tiny demographic changes can flip a one-vote margin in London local elections, and YouGov’s multilevel regression-with-post-stratification (MRP) model shows exactly where those flips happen. By mapping micro-demographic groups onto precincts, campaigns can target the handful of votes that decide a borough. Local Elections Voting: YouGov Reveals Tiny Demographic Upsets